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Is Turbulence Getting Worse?

2 min read

The short answer

Some research suggests strong clear-air turbulence has become more common over busy routes like the North Atlantic. But that's about comfort, not safety — planes are built for far stronger forces, and forecasting keeps getting better. With your seatbelt fastened, a bumpier patch is still just a bumpier patch.

You May Have Seen the Headlines

"Turbulence is getting worse." It's a headline that can add one more worry to the list. So let's look at what the research actually says — and why it doesn't need to worry you.

What the Research Found

In 2023, scientists at the University of Reading studied 40 years of data. They found that, at a typical point over the North Atlantic, strong clear-air turbulence happened more often in 2020 than in 1979. Their explanation: a warmer climate may be strengthening the high winds that cause it.

It's an interesting finding. But it's important to understand what it means — and what it doesn't.

It's About Comfort, Not Safety

The planes haven't changed what they can handle. Airliners are built to withstand far stronger forces than any turbulence passengers normally meet. The rules require every plane's structure to carry one and a half times the biggest load it should ever see. Read how a new plane is tested.

So a few more bumpy minutes on some routes means a slightly less smooth ride — not a less safe one.

Forecasts Keep Getting Better

At the same time, turbulence forecasting is improving. Work at the University of Reading helped produce forecasts that are now used by weather services. Their research says smooth routes can now be planned six hours earlier than before. Pilots also share live reports, so planes behind can choose a smoother height.

The One Thing That Matters

With turbulence, the simple answer stays the same: keep your seatbelt loosely fastened whenever you're seated. Read your seatbelt: the one simple safety step.

The Takeaway

Some routes may get a little bumpier. But your plane is built for it, your pilots plan around it, and your seatbelt takes care of the rest. It's one less thing you need to worry about.

Sources

Keep reading

Understanding Turbulence

What turbulence actually is, why it happens, and why it's uncomfortable but not dangerous.

Clear-Air Turbulence: Bumps in a Blue Sky

Why a plane can bump in perfectly clear sky, how pilots plan around it, and why it's about comfort rather than danger.

Your Seatbelt: The One Simple Safety Step

Why keeping your seatbelt loosely fastened whenever you're seated is the single easiest thing you can do for a calm, comfortable flight — and what the seatbelt sign really means.

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